Conclusions and Baby Steps

This is the syllabus for one of a series of classes taught by Robert Raymond and represents his private opinions. Suggestions for changes should be made on this page's Talk page. See other articles in this series at:
 * Sources and Baby Steps
 * Information Baby Steps
 * Evidence Baby Steps
 * Citation Baby Steps
 * Genealogical Maturity

Conclusions
The genealogies we create are sometimes called conclusion trees. Each name, date, place, and relationship in the tree is a conclusion. A new genealogist typically accepts conclusions without thought and without evidence. For a proficient genealogist, a conclusion is “a decision…based on well-reasoned and thoroughly documented evidence gleaned from sound research.”

Genealogical Proof Standard
A group of stellar genealogists have defined a method by which solid conclusions can be made. It is called the Genealogical Proof Standard (GPS).

For some people, high school geometry left permanent scars and the mere mention of the word proof evokes fear and loathing. However, the GPS is nothing to be afraid of. It is easy to understand and produces sound conclusions, even when direct evidence is lacking. “We often hear researchers lament that they cannot find a birth record or a marriage certificate to prove their case, when in reality, they have a solid case if GPS is properly applied.”

The elements of the Genealogical Proof Standard are:


 * “A reasonably exhaustive search,
 * a complete and accurate citation of sources,
 * analysis and correlation of the collected information,
 * resolution of conflicting evidence, and
 * a soundly reasoned, coherently written conclusion.”

Reasonably Exhaustive Search
To reach a solid conclusion you must perform a reasonably exhaustive search. The GPS does not call for exhaustion, it calls for reasonableness. “A completely exhaustive search is not necessary to achieve genealogical proof.” The idea behind a reasonable search is to decrease the probability that someone will summarily dismiss your conclusion using a source you should have checked.

A proficient genealogist uses a wide variety of record types found online, on microfilm, and on location. Keep in mind that not all sources are independent. One may be copied from another. Try to find at least two independent sources for each conclusion.

Complete and Accurate Source Citations
To produce verifiably accurate conclusions, you must have complete and accurate citations of sources. Citations serve two purposes:


 * find the source you used (as well as the original from which it was derived), and
 * signal the strength of the source.

Complete citations showcase the breadth of your search and the strength of your sources.

Analyze Sources, Information, and Evidence
To reach a solid conclusion you must analyze and correlate the sources, information, and evidence. You must correctly correlate references to one individual in multiple records. If all the evidence is direct and in agreement, no further work is necessary.

Analyze each source, piece of information, and every bit of evidence. Think about the sources. Are they original or derivative? Compare and contrast them. Think about the evidence. Is it direct or indirect? Is it in agreement, or conflicting? Compare and contrast.

Resolve Conflicting Evidence
To reach a solid conclusion you must resolve conflicting evidence. “If conflicting evidence is not resolved, a credible conclusion is not possible.”

Compare the strengths of the evidence supporting each alternative. Decide between the alternatives based strength and quality, not on quantity. “Assigning weight [strength] is subjective. There is no magic formula. It is a skill that is developed over time, with experience, and based upon knowledge of all aspects of the elements of evidence.” Can you explain how each piece of dissenting evidence came to be? Is each independent, or are some derived from others?

Record the Conclusion
To reach a solid conclusion, it must be soundly reasoned and coherently recorded. The more elaborate the analysis, the more that needs to be recorded. In a simple case of multiple sources of direct evidence, none of it contrary, only the conclusion and the citations need to be recorded. A genealogy can’t be verifiably correct unless you document your reasoning.

No conclusion is ever final. Additional research may one day reveal evidence that changes the conclusion.

Summary
From sources we find information. From information we select evidence. From evidence we make conclusions. Conclusions reference citations. Citations point back to sources.

To create verifiably correct genealogy, follow the Genealogical Proof Standard:


 * Make a reasonably exhaustive search of available sources,
 * write complete and accurate citations,
 * analyze and correlate the collected information,
 * resolve conflicting evidence, and
 * write a soundly reasoned, coherent conclusion.

Using the table at the start of this handout, and using what you learned in class today, set a small, baby step improvement goal. See Genealogical Maturity for more information.

Continuing Education
Advancing from level to level requires continuing education. Avail yourself of these resources: